A Quick Way To Calculate Your “Odds” and “Outs”

Poker is all about probabilities. If you want to become a successful poker player and by that, I mean a player that consistently makes money, then you need to understand probabilities.

Now I have a minor in statistics but even I find the whole idea of poker probabilties to be confusing to say the least. But there are some tricks that we can use to make it easier. Here is a way to calculate approximate probabilities.

So let’s say that the flop comes and you have a couple of diamonds and there are two more diamonds in the community cards. Altogether you have four diamonds and you need one more to make a flush. So what are your real chances of making a flush?

First of all you need to work out how many “outs” you have. Outs are the number of ways that you can make a flush. Clearly you can do this if you get another diamond card. And because you already have 4 of them then there are only 9 left (13-4=9).

Then the formula to work out the approximate odds of hitting a flush are:

ODDS = OUTS X CHANCES x 2

Because the turn and the river are still to come then you have 2 more chances to get another card and make a flush.

So let’s calculate the odds:

ODDS = 9 x 2 x 2 = 36%

So you have roughly a 36% chance of hitting a flush.

This might sound difficult but with practice you can easily work out many approximate odds on the fly.

Alternatively, you can use a poker calculator which will work these odds and outs for you on the fly. They are very useful and work with most of the popular poker rooms. The disadvantage with them is that they are obviously useless if you want to play regular offline poker.

Increase Your Hand Value By Bluffing

Many beginners often think that a hand is always good or always bad, no matter who your opponents are.

This could not be further from the truth.

Obviously we know that bluffing is a kind of deceit that we can use to trick people into thinking that we have better cards than we really do. But the real value of bluffing comes from decreasing your number of opponents.

You see, as I have said many times before, poker is a game of probabilities. If you can reduce your number of opponents then suddenly a mediocre hand can become a great hand.

Or to put it another way, the more people who participate in the game, the less chance you have of winning.

This is why all great poker players are aggressive. If you are not aggressive then you will become victim to the aggressive players. If you are weak and always limp in then you will always be punished by raises. On the other hand, if you are aggressive then you can prey on the weak and even if they have good hands, they will surrender them as soon as they start to fear you.

So it is important to play aggressive to reduce the number of competitors. If your hand isn’t actually any good then it is still worth playing aggressive and bluffing if you think that you can force others to fold when they believe your bluff.

The best types of players are what is known as tight-aggressive. They do not go wild with emotions, they use their head and play with logic. And they use aggression to prey upon the weak and turn the odds in their favour.

Emotions At The River

It is so easy to lose a huge chunk of your bankroll at the river. I used to do it myself many a time when I first started to play poker.

What happens is that you get a couple of pretty good hole cards and you start betting. The flop comes and it’s looking really good. The river comes and it’s still looking really good. So good, that you’re ignoring the possibility that the community cards look pretty good for the others too (possibilities of a flush, maybe some connectors).

The river comes and you realise that whilst the going is still really good for yourself, it could also be good for the other guy left playing. Everyone else has folded and you and him are locked in a war of raises.

Could he be bluffing or could he really have “the nuts”. You figure that you are so heavily invested already that you call his raise and go to the showdown where you promptly lose.

How Can You Avoid This Happening In Future?

Almost always, people underestimate the probabilities involved in the game of poker. To play poker without understanding probabilities is like going to sea without a life jacket. You can learn more about basic probabilities here – poker probabilities.

The other thing to note is that at the river, your emotions take over and despite doubting the strength of your cards versus your opponent, you decide to go ahead anyway and risk a huge amount of your bankroll when you are most in doubt. In fact, you should risk more bankroll when you have less doubt about your position or that of your opponent’s instead.

If you learn from your game, understand basic poker probabilities and think about your bankroll, then in future you not take such emotional risks against good opponents and you will risk an appropriate amount of your bankroll depending on the reward versus the risk for the situation.

The Psychology Of Bad Beats

Coming back from bad beats and knowing how to handle them is so important in your poker career.

Bad beats are when you go all in on a sure thing and, against the odds, you lose to your opponent.

Many people will first of all blame the poker room or claim a bot or logging software is at work. This is very rarely the case.

Others will become focussed on winning their money back from the person who “stole” their chips. Never let emotions get the better of you. It is in many ways best to just leave the table and come back later to another table. Best to retreat and fight again another day than be fatally wounded or suffer an even larger setback in your emotional lust for revenge.

The fact is, bad beats are just part of the game in poker. Poker is a game of probabilities and your chances of winning are very rarely equal to 1. Someone can nearly always beat you, no matter how favourable the odds.

Don’t modify the way that you play. You must look to the long term. If you have been playing profitably so far then in the long run you will continue to do so. If you suddenly change your play and become more tight then you will probably miss too many opportunities and begin a long term losing streak.

Get back into the game and do not change your style because of a few bad beats. Check your history. If you made mistakes based on the information available then learn from them. If you made the best decision based on the available information then you have nothing to regret. Keep playing this way and you will profit in the long term.

Especially in poker, we have a game where you must use your logic over your emotions. Even worse than your opponents beating you is for you to beat yourself.

Poker Odds – Why Pot And Implied Odds Are Important

Like all card games, poker is a game of probabilities. Put simply, you need to assess each situation for what it is.

If you stand a good chance of winning a lot of money for relatively little investment then go for it.
If you stand a small chance of winning some money for relatively high investment then pass on the opportunity.

It is difficult to compute the odds during a game because you are often limited for time but with experience it will come. You may find it easier to use a poker calculator. These are software programs that sit on top of most poker room software and analyse the probabilities for you as the cards are played.

Poker players use the term pot odds to show the cost of calling to stay in the hand. Let’s say that the pot has $100 in it and you need to play $10 to call and stay in the hand. That is basically a 10 buck investment to potentially win 100 bucks.

If you had 3 hearts and the final card was to be played then you stand a 1 in 4 chance of getting that monster hand. With a 1 in 4 chance it obviously makes sense to pay this $10. You might not get the flush (you probably won’t) but in the long run you will win from these kinds of decisions.

On the other hand, if the pot only contained $15 then risking $10 to win $15 based on a 1 in 4 chance is not worth it at all.

These odds show why it is important to bet aggressively. Not only will this improve your odds of not being beaten by an opponent’s hand but it will also make the pot much more attractive compared to your investment. Do not let other players cheap access to the pot.